I've seen this wave before. Twice. Both times, it was the opportunity of the decade.
The organizations that met the Internet and the mobile-and-cloud transition with curiosity - and a plan - defined the years that followed. AI is that moment again.
Every structural wave changes the relationship between people and computing. The Internet put the world a click away - but tethered: dial-up, tied to the one machine in the family room the whole household shared. Mobile and cloud broke the tether, moving computing - back, in some ways - to a central source you could reach from anywhere, at any time, fully on demand. The desk stopped mattering.
Now AI is changing something deeper: who does the first draft of the work.
I've been inside all of it. I helped build the Internet wave in the 1990s. I led a national education company's adaptation to the mobile transition - remaking content, production, and the skills of the teams behind them for a world of tablets and phones. I ran an 850-person remote operation through the cloud and remote-work shift.
Here's what that history teaches: your organization won't be building AI. It will be adapting to it - and adaptation is the discipline I've practiced for thirty years.
Met with curiosity and a plan, change this deep is the opportunity of a career. Managed badly, it can still break an organization, and I won't pretend otherwise. I work with leaders who want to be excited about what's coming - on evidence, not hype.
And I should be clear about what I'm selling: nothing but judgment. No software, no platform, no vendor partnership, no implementation contract waiting at the end of the assessment. I've seen how these transitions go down - where the opportunities are real, where the limitations bite, and how to tell the difference. That independence is the whole point.
Presage is the advisory practice of Robert Arena.
The Internet
Mobile, cloud, and remote work
AI
The Internet, 1995 - 2005. Mobile, cloud, and remote work, 2005 - 2020. AI, 2020 - today.
The wave right now is AI. The discipline is thirty years old.
Readiness and Strategy
Where you actually stand, what's genuinely worth being excited about in your operation, and a roadmap ranked by evidence rather than enthusiasm alone. And when the roadmap says buy: RFP and vendor-selection support, from your side of the table.
Adoption and Change Leadership
Most technology initiatives stall on the organization, not the technology. I've led adoption at the scale of hundreds of staff and tens of thousands of users.
Evidence and Evaluation
Pilot design, honest go/no-go criteria, and measurement built on independently validated instruments - not vendor benchmarks.
Enthusiasm that shows its work.
Every recommendation I make carries its reasoning, its evidence, and its failure modes. If something is unlikely to work for you, I'll say so - and if the honest answer is "not yet" or "not this," you'll hear that too. That candor is what makes the excitement trustworthy. It's also the whole reason to hire an advisor with nothing to sell but judgment.
Some of that work is public. I write about AI, education, and leadership through this transition at The Participant Observer - the reasoning as well as the conclusions, in the open, where you can check it.
Read The Participant Observer